Rove is probably a bit pessimistic and the map in the upper left of the front page is probably a bit optimistic.  With so many states between 2-6 points, some of these are going to swing.

I've always wished that analysis could be separated from advocacy.  I wish we could have math instead of "The Math".  Analysis should not be partisan (Rove is bad on this and there are certain professional Democrats who are bad on this as well--I don't want to call these pols out because I don't want to attack fellow Democrats).

Everything that Rove puts out is a calculated measure meant to affect the political situation in favor of the candidates that he is supporting (and, by extension, himself).  

Rove knows that polling this far out is effectively meaningless, and by predicting a drubbing by scary Democrat Obama, he thinks he can motivate the base.  We should not even be giving his drek the time of day.  I'm a little annoyed at Chuck Todd for even reporting it, but I do suppose that Rove is a legitimate newsmaker.  He made the last two presidential terms, after all.